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Research

Thinking, in writing.

Independent research, portfolio commentary and market observations from M’Squared Capital. Short on prediction, long on mechanics.

Latest

Market OutlookJune 202614 min read

The Gamma Regime: How Dealer Positioning Shapes Index Behavior

When dealers are long gamma, volatility is sold and ranges compress. When they are short, hedging flows amplify every move. Understanding which regime prevails is often more useful than any directional forecast.

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Market Outlook

Periodic desk notes on liquidity, rates, volatility and positioning.

MacroMay 202611 min read

Liquidity Is the Only Macro

Growth and inflation matter, but the marginal price of every asset is set by the marginal dollar. A framework for reading net liquidity across the Treasury, the Fed, and the repo complex.

Federal ReserveMay 20269 min read

The Fed’s Reaction Function After the Cutting Cycle

Markets price paths; the Fed prices pain. What the 2026 easing cycle reveals about the committee’s true tolerance for inflation — and where the curve is mispriced because of it.

OptionsApril 202612 min read

Volatility Skew and the Price of Insurance

Skew tells you what the market fears; term structure tells you when. Reading both together turns the options surface into a positioning survey conducted with real money.

Quarterly Outlook

The quarter ahead — regime, risk, and what it means for the book.

New notes in preparation.

Firm Notes

Shorter observations on process, risk and valuation.

New notes in preparation.