Equity Research · Realized Position
USA Rare Earth
USAR · Rare-Earth Supply Chain
Reshoring the rare-earth supply chain is policy, not preference — a realized 47% on a catalyst-rich tape.
Quan Pham · M’Squared Capital Research · August 2026
What the market is missing
The market treated rare-earth independence as a slogan. I treated it as a bipartisan national-security priority that capital, tariffs and offtake would follow rather than precede.
Why I owned it
I owned USA Rare Earth as a direct play on Western supply-chain reshoring, and specifically on the magnet step rather than the mine — that is where the value-added scarcity sits. The tape was rich with tariff and stockpile catalysts, which gave me a clear window to own and a clear window to sell.
What has to happen
It needed tariff and export-control headlines, strategic-stockpile announcements, and offtake agreements to keep re-rating the space.
What would prove me wrong
Rare-earth commodity-price volatility, project-execution risk, and a policy reversal were the ways this could have unwound.
Valuation & exit
I realized $25 from $17 — roughly 47% — into the policy-driven momentum. This was a tailwind trade with a defined catalyst window, and I sold into the strength rather than waiting for the tailwind to turn.
Position
Long
Realized return
+47.1%
Entry → Exit
$17.00 → $25.00
Initiated
20 Feb 2026
Sector
Rare-Earth Supply Chain
Status
Closed at target
Last updated
August 2026
This note is the opinion of M’Squared Capital and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Price targets and entry and exit levels reflect the firm’s proprietary views and realized transactions; they are not forecasts of future results. The firm may hold, add to, reduce, or close any position at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.