Equity Research · Current Holding
United States Antimony
UAMY · NYSE American · Critical Minerals
A defense-critical mineral with no easy Western substitute, bought back into weakness rather than into a spike.
Quan Pham · M’Squared Capital Research · August 2026
What the market is missing
Most people learned the word antimony during last year's export-control headlines and forgot it when the price came back down. The supply gap did not go away with the news cycle. China's export curbs left a structural hole in a mineral the defense supply chain cannot easily source elsewhere, and the market has stopped paying attention to a problem that has not been solved.
Why I own it
I traded this successfully during the shock — a realized gain of roughly 40% — and I have re-established it into the subsequent pullback rather than chasing a headline. The demand is defense-critical and relatively inelastic, which is exactly what magnifies a supply shortfall, and US Antimony owns domestic processing capacity in a market that wants domestic sourcing. Same supply thesis, better price.
What has to happen
Export-restriction and strategic-stockpile headlines have to keep tightening Western availability, defense procurement has to show up, and the antimony price has to reflect the scarcity. Domestic-sourcing policy support would accelerate all of it.
What would prove me wrong
This is a micro-cap with thin liquidity, and I treat the position accordingly. If the commodity price simply reverses — if the supply gap closes faster than I think, or demand softens — the torque works against me as violently as it works for me. Operational stumbles at a company this small are their own risk.
Valuation & exit
My $7 objective reflects a normalization back toward the supply-shock premium as Western sourcing tightens. It is a small, deliberately-sized, high-torque position — I am paid for the asymmetry, not for pretending a name like this is safe.
Position
Long Equity
Price objective
$7
Initiated
Re-established · Aug 2026
Sector
Critical Minerals
Status
Current holding
Last updated
August 2026
This note is the opinion of M’Squared Capital and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Price targets and entry and exit levels reflect the firm’s proprietary views and realized transactions; they are not forecasts of future results. The firm may hold, add to, reduce, or close any position at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.