Equity Research · Realized Position
SpaceX
SPCX · Launch · Satellite Broadband
Short the froth in a private-market mark, not the engineering — covered up 32% before it reached my target.
Quan Pham · M’Squared Capital Research · August 2026
What the market is missing
Secondary-market marks on SpaceX capitalized near-perfect execution on Starship and Starlink that was years and tens of billions of capex away. The market was pricing the destination; I was pricing the distance to it. The margin of safety at that implied valuation was negative.
Why I was short
I expressed a short through secondary and pre-IPO instruments — deliberately small, defined-risk — against the private-market froth, not against the rockets. Starlink's economics at scale were unproven against the embedded multiple, and private marks lag reality, which meant a funding round or a listing could reprice the whole stack lower once real discovery arrived.
What has to happen
It needed price discovery — a down-round, an IPO, a Starship delay, or broad private-market multiple compression — to pull the mark toward achievable cash flows.
What would prove me wrong
Starship success re-rating the franchise higher, or simply continued private-market exuberance, would have run me over. Illiquidity and borrow constraints on the expression were a live risk the entire time.
Valuation & exit
The valuation began to normalize and I covered up roughly 32%, ahead of my target. On an illiquid, small, defined-risk short, taking a good gain early was the right call — I do not overstay froth trades.
Position
Short
Realized return
+32%
Sector
Launch
Status
Closed
Last updated
August 2026
This note is the opinion of M’Squared Capital and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Price targets and entry and exit levels reflect the firm’s proprietary views and realized transactions; they are not forecasts of future results. The firm may hold, add to, reduce, or close any position at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.