Equity Research · Current Holding
SanDisk
SNDK · NASDAQ · Memory · Storage
The second leg of the memory trade — flash — bought back after a clean win, for the same reason as the first.
Quan Pham · M’Squared Capital Research · August 2026
What the market is missing
Flash gets even less credit than DRAM for having changed. The market still treats NAND as the part of memory that never behaves. What it is underrating is supply discipline meeting AI-driven demand for high-capacity enterprise SSDs — the tightest, highest-margin corner of the market.
Why I own it
SanDisk was a clean realized 53.8% earlier this year and I am back in it alongside Micron. I want DRAM and NAND together because they express the same up-cycle across both product lines, and owning one without the other leaves half the trade on the table. Rational capacity behavior has restored pricing power to flash after a punishing down-cycle, and the enterprise-SSD demand pulling the market tight is the AI build-out in a different form.
What has to happen
NAND contract prices have to keep rising, enterprise-SSD demand has to keep accelerating, and the majors have to keep talking and acting like a disciplined oligopoly rather than a commodity free-for-all.
What would prove me wrong
Same discipline test as memory generally: if suppliers break ranks and add capacity into the strength, pricing reverses and the thesis is done. A broad semiconductor de-rate takes the whole complex regardless of how tight NAND actually is.
Valuation & exit
My $2,200 objective reflects sustained NAND pricing, an improving enterprise mix and the operating leverage of a flash up-cycle. This is high beta and I hold it as such — and I will ring the register into strength rather than marry the cycle.
Position
Long Equity
Price objective
$2,200
Initiated
Re-established · Aug 2026
Sector
Memory
Status
Current holding
Last updated
August 2026
This note is the opinion of M’Squared Capital and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Price targets and entry and exit levels reflect the firm’s proprietary views and realized transactions; they are not forecasts of future results. The firm may hold, add to, reduce, or close any position at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.