Equity Research · Realized Position
Rocket Lab
RKLB · Space Systems · Launch
The right company at the wrong price — I chased the number-two launch franchise too high and paid for the entry.
Quan Pham · M’Squared Capital Research · August 2026
What the market is missing
My read on the business was fine; my read on the entry was not. Neutron and the space-systems franchise are a credible long-term story, and I believed the backlog momentum would carry it.
Why I owned it
I re-entered at $85 on Neutron optimism. The story was intact — this was never a thesis-break in waiting. It was a valuation-and-timing decision, and I made it richly, paying up into momentum.
What has to happen
It needed the Neutron timeline to stay on track and the high-beta space complex to hold its multiple.
What would prove me wrong
What went against me was the price I paid meeting a risk-off tape: high-beta space de-rated hard, and Neutron timeline questions did the rest. The company did not break; my entry did.
Valuation & exit
I stopped at $60 — roughly −29% — rather than hope. This was a valuation and timing loss, not a thesis break, and I would revisit the name on execution and a better entry.
Position
Long
Realized return
−29.4%
Entry → Exit
$85.00 → $60.00
Initiated
29 Jan 2026
Sector
Space Systems
Status
Stopped out
Last updated
August 2026
This note is the opinion of M’Squared Capital and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Price targets and entry and exit levels reflect the firm’s proprietary views and realized transactions; they are not forecasts of future results. The firm may hold, add to, reduce, or close any position at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.