Equity Research · Realized Position
Palantir Technologies
PLTR · Software · Data & AI Platforms
The clearest enterprise-AI monetization engine I track — sold into strength, up 34%, before my target.
Quan Pham · M’Squared Capital Research · August 2026
What the market is missing
The market spent a long time debating whether Palantir was a real business. AIP settled it. The ontology turned into the fastest enterprise-AI adoption curve I follow, and for a while the fundamentals were underappreciated relative to the noise around the multiple.
Why I owned it
I owned the fundamentals while respecting the valuation. Boot-camp-led land-and-expand was compressing sales cycles and driving best-in-class net-dollar retention in US commercial — the segment that reprices the whole story — with structural operating leverage pushing the Rule-of-40 well into the 80s. Palantir owned the deployed-AI category competitors were still prototyping.
What has to happen
It needed US commercial customer-count acceleration, large government awards, and continued margin beats to justify a demanding price.
What would prove me wrong
At north of 50 times sales, valuation was always the risk rather than the thesis. Any growth wobble would have compressed the multiple hard, and government revenue is lumpy quarter to quarter.
Valuation & exit
I sold into strength, up roughly 34%, ahead of my price target, to free capital for other ideas. Trimming a great business into a parabolic move — rather than chasing the tape — is how I keep valuation risk from becoming my problem.
Position
Long
Realized return
+34%
Sector
Software
Status
Closed
Last updated
August 2026
This note is the opinion of M’Squared Capital and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Price targets and entry and exit levels reflect the firm’s proprietary views and realized transactions; they are not forecasts of future results. The firm may hold, add to, reduce, or close any position at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.