Equity Research · Current Holding
Micron Technology
MU · NASDAQ · Semiconductors · Memory
I sold Micron into euphoria at $420 and the give-back handed it back to me at a better price.
Quan Pham · M’Squared Capital Research · August 2026
What the market is missing
The market keeps pricing memory as a commodity that always mean-reverts to pain. This cycle is different in one specific way: high-bandwidth memory is committed years forward, and that changes who has pricing power. I closed this name for a realized 75% earlier in the year; the pullback since then, not any change in the thesis, is why I am back.
Why I own it
I re-established Micron because HBM3E and HBM4 capacity is spoken for well ahead of supply, DRAM pricing is firm, and the operating leverage on a memory up-cycle is enormous — incremental margins flow disproportionately to the bottom line. This is the highest-torque way to own AI capacity, and I am owning it again at a cheaper entry than the one I exited.
What has to happen
Micron has to keep disclosing HBM sold out and taking share, DRAM contract prices have to hold or rise, and AI memory content per system has to keep climbing. Supply discipline from the three players who matter has to persist. If those hold, the earnings power the market is not underwriting shows up.
What would prove me wrong
Memory is cyclical and I never forget it. If pricing rolls over while the industry keeps adding capacity, the supply-discipline premise is simply wrong and the cycle is turning. An inventory correction or a broad semiconductor de-rating would take this name down with the group regardless of the company-specific story.
Valuation & exit
My $1,200 objective reflects mid-cycle-plus earnings power on sustained HBM pricing and DRAM discipline, with the AI-memory mix re-rating the multiple. I size it for the cyclicality and I will sell strength again — the discipline that produced the last exit is the same one that governs this position.
Position
Long Equity
Price objective
$1,200
Initiated
Re-established · Aug 2026
Sector
Semiconductors
Status
Current holding
Last updated
August 2026
This note is the opinion of M’Squared Capital and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Price targets and entry and exit levels reflect the firm’s proprietary views and realized transactions; they are not forecasts of future results. The firm may hold, add to, reduce, or close any position at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.